Kara NasvigIn a recent development, MIT researchers have introduced a tool that offers insight into the potential impact of climate change on outdoor activities, specifically focusing on the number of “outdoor days” regions might experience from now through 2100 if carbon emissions continue to rise unchecked.
The tool’s findings present a mixed outlook, with some regions gaining additional outdoor days while others face significant losses. For instance, areas like California, France, and Germany might see a slight increase in outdoor weather during spring and fall, offering anywhere from a few days to nearly a month of additional outdoor time. On the contrary, regions like New York, Massachusetts, China, and Japan could lose up to a week or more of outdoor days, with Illinois and Texas facing even more substantial losses, such as over a month and a half in the case of Texas by the 2080s.
Furthermore, countries with vulnerable populations, such as Nigeria and India, are projected to suffer the most significant losses, with summers becoming hotter and longer, resulting in the loss of nearly two months of outdoor days in Nigeria and almost two and a half months in India.
However, the tool also suggests that efforts to mitigate carbon emissions could lead to significant improvements. Even if the world fails to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 but manages to do so by 2070, the situation could improve drastically. For instance, Nigeria and India would only lose one month of outdoor days, and more northern regions would retain some of their additional outdoor days.
This tool represents a practical application of climate scenario analysis, offering insights into how climate change could impact various regions and demographics. Startups in the climate forecasting space are leveraging similar predictive capabilities to address uncertainty for investors, lenders, insurers, and other markets exposed to the outdoors. These startups provide tailored solutions for assessing risks related to flood, wildfire, drought, and other climate-related events, catering to industries ranging from agriculture to outdoor event planning and insurance.
As awareness of climate change impacts grows among businesses and consumers, the demand for certainty in understanding and mitigating these risks is expected to fuel the expansion of climate scenario analysis into mainstream markets, offering ample opportunities for startups and established players in the field alike.
